Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari raised concerns last week after saying that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year, despite the expectation of several rate cuts before the end of the year.
“In March, I had jotted down two rate cuts this year if inflation continues to fall back towards our 2% target,” Kashkari said during an event earlier this month. “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we needed to do those rate cuts at all.”
A majority of FOMC members said earlier this month that they expect three rate cuts this year, with some such as Kashkari predicting just two.
Annual inflation dropped to 3.0% last June after peaking at 9.1% the year prior, but still well above the Fed’s goal of 2%. Since June, inflation has remained above 3%, and now sits at 3.5%.
“The data does not completely remove the possibility of Fed action this year, but it certainly lessens the chances the Fed is cutting the overnight rate in the next couple months,” Phillip Neuhart, director of market and economic research at First Citizens, said.
“The strong inflation data … should force the Fed to go back to the drawing board with regards to their monetary policy ambitions for the year,” said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management in Minneapolis.
The current interest rate remains at 5.25-5.50 but JPMorgan Chase chief Jamie Dimon warned this week that rates could surge past 8% in the coming years, due to record US debt and ongoing international conflicts.
“Huge fiscal spending, the trillions needed each year for the green economy, the remilitarization of the world and the restructuring of global trade — all are inflationary,” Dimon wrote in his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders on Monday.